33%: Trump's Approval Hits Low as Independents Decide House Control

President Trump's approval rating has dropped to 33 percent as the war with Iran grows more unpopular, creating a political environment that mirrors the 2006 midterms. Early voting is already underway in many states ahead of Election Day on Tuesday, November 3.

The current economic conditions include rising gas prices and persistent inflation that affect American families and small businesses. These factors are driving some voters who previously supported Republicans to seek alternative candidates. In the 2006 midterms, George W. Bush's approval rating fell to approximately 38 percent, leading Democrats to gain 31 House seats and reclaim control of the chamber.

Patrick J. Murphy, who served as the 32nd Army Under Secretary, represented a Republican-leaning district in Bucks County, Pennsylvania, in 2006. He defeated the incumbent by 1,521 votes, securing 50.3 percent of the total. His victory marked the first time an Iraq War veteran was elected to Congress in that region. Murphy notes that favorable conditions alone did not secure the win; persuading voters who did not initially support the Democratic Party was essential.

The Cook Political Report recently reclassified Texas and Iowa from Lean Republican to Toss Up. This change expands the core Senate battlefield from four states to six. However, Democrats must still convince voters in these competitive races to shift their support.

Seventy-one percent of Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of the cost of living, a sentiment shared by four in ten Republicans. Gallup data from 2025 indicates that 45 percent of Americans identify as independents, compared to 27 percent each for Democrats and Republicans. Independents are the fastest-growing political group in the country and frequently decide election outcomes.

In 2020, independents favored Joe Biden by nine points, but they split evenly between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in the subsequent cycle. In Bucks County, independents make up more than 18 percent of the electorate. Democrats hold 40 percent of the vote, while Republicans hold 42 percent. Trump defeated Joe Biden in this district two years ago, illustrating the tight margins that characterize these areas.

Murphy's campaign in 2006 relied on more than 2,000 volunteers who knocked on approximately 160,000 doors. He argues that modern politics often prioritizes affirming a faction's base over persuading general election voters. Democrats must engage with voters who supported Trump in 2024 without requiring them to apologize for their previous choices.

The last six federal elections have resulted in a change of party control in the House, Senate, or White House. A victory next week would make that seven consecutive change elections. Since 1877, every twice-elected president who completed their term ended with an opposition Senate. The outcome on November 3 will determine if Democrats can translate current discontent into a majority.