Military bets signal danger to enemies

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has issued a memo warning military personnel about the risks of using nonpublic information to make bets on prediction markets. He says these wagers can give important clues to enemy countries. The memo was sent to senior Pentagon leadership, Combatant Command leaders, and Defense Department field activity directors. Hegseth wrote that when an American Service member, intelligence professional, or other Department civilian engages in a financial transaction on a military outcome, they create a signal. That signal can be aggregated, correlated, and exploited by hostile foreign intelligence services to anticipate our movements, targets, and timing. The lives of our Service members often depend on the enemy not knowing what is coming. The men and women who carry our flag into harm’s way deserve a Force that protects them, not one that exposes them to the enemy for personal gain.

In April, a US Army soldier was arrested and charged with using confidential information to make $410,000 in Polymarket bets on the timing of the military’s capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. An August report by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective said the group found 152 suspicious wallets that placed longshot bets on military and defense markets and won a combined $8 million.

Betting can warp judgment, Hegseth says. He says the prohibition applies to all financial platforms, including traditional betting services and prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi. Defense Department personnel may not make any financial transaction informed by nonpublic information, regardless of whether that information is classified or unclassified.

The men and women who carry our flag into harm’s way deserve a Force that protects them, not one that exposes them to the enemy for personal gain. The lives of our Service members often depend on the enemy not knowing what is coming.

The memo was sent to senior Pentagon leadership, Combatant Command leaders, and Defense Department field activity directors.

Hegseth wrote that when an American Service member, intelligence professional, or other Department civilian engages in a financial transaction on a military outcome, they create a signal.

That signal can be aggregated, correlated, and exploited by hostile foreign intelligence services to anticipate our movements, targets, and timing.