Ex-AI Index Edges Ahead With 12.4% Return, Nearly Level With S&P 500

A Goldman Sachs index built to exclude artificial intelligence stocks has nearly matched the S&P 500 this year, a shift that arrives as investors pull back from the sector. The index is designed without the companies classified as AI enablers.

The Goldman Sachs measure stood at a 12.4% gain through Oct. 22, just ahead of the S&P 500's 12% rise. The two tracked each other closely after the standard index climbed in Monday trading. The Goldman index had trailed the S&P 500 for most of 2026, a gap that closed during the past week.

Tech and AI-linked companies account for roughly 45% of the S&P 500. That concentration has carried the index for years, but it has recently cut the other way. The S&P 500 tech sector dropped about 7% this month while other sectors held steady. Meta Platforms shares fell almost 7% Thursday after the company detailed further plans for heavy capital spending and additional share issuance. GE Vernova, Bloom Energy, Vistra and Quanta Services, which supply power and equipment for the buildout, also slid during the recent sell-off.

Goldman launched the index with S&P earlier this year. It starts with the S&P 500 as its universe, drops companies viewed as AI enablers, then applies S&P 500 weighting methods to what remains. Money has moved toward defensive areas in recent weeks. ETFs tracking consumer staples, health care and utilities are up 7% to 10% this month, and energy is up 10% as well. Energy's gain is tied to the war in Iran. Berkshire Hathaway Class B shares rose 8% this month. Berkshire holds Geico, Burlington Northern Santa Fe, and a $364 billion stock portfolio that includes Apple, Coca-Cola, Alphabet and Bank of America.

Ari Wald, a technical analyst at Oppenheimer, wrote in an Oct. 24 note that the AI pendulum has swung back in favor of non-AI exposure over the last two weeks. Oppenheimer raised commercial services and insurance to overweight last week. The firm named Republic Services, Cintas, Verisk Analytics, Broadridge Financial Solutions, MetLife and Arthur J. Gallagher as picks in those industries.

Trivector Research points to non-tech compounders. Eli Lilly is up 22% on the strength of its weight-loss drugs, and it plans to file for FDA approval of a next-generation obesity drug early in 2027. Viking Holdings said on its August earnings call that 40% of its river capacity and 60% of its ocean capacity was booked for 2027. Its stock is up 15% this year, and the average Wall Street target sits at $109 against recent prices near $82. Barclays raised Viking to overweight with a $102 target.