Carney: U.S. trade shift driven by midterms

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney stated on Monday that the United States is moving closer to Canada's trade demands as the midterm election deadline approaches. He attributed any recent progress in negotiations directly to Washington shifting its stance to match Ottawa's requirements.

Carney noted that discussions have intensified slightly, but he maintained that Canada's core negotiating position has not changed. The Prime Minister acknowledged uncertainty about whether President Donald Trump would honor a new agreement, referencing a previous warning that U.S. commitments were sometimes written in pencil rather than pen. When asked if a deal would be signed in pen this time, Carney replied, 'I don't know that.'

The current diplomatic posture follows a breakdown in talks in August. Canada rejected U.S. terms at that time, stating the proposal crossed established red lines. In response, Trump imposed 50% tariffs on roughly $20 billion in Canadian goods, triggering retaliatory measures and additional trade restrictions.

Recent moves by the White House suggest a potential pivot. On Friday, Trump announced he would lift some of the 50% tariffs on Canadian goods while imposing new duties on other products. Two days later, at a campaign rally in Michigan, he claimed Canada was willing to concede terms and predicted a deal would be settled soon. He told a Detroit television station that an agreement could be reached before the midterms, though he admitted it might take months.

Trade policy has become a central issue in several U.S. Senate races. In Michigan, Republican candidate Mike Rogers argued in a campaign ad that Canada is not an enemy and that the tariff war must end. In Maine, Republican Senator Susan Collins pressed the administration to ease tariffs on goods used by local farmers and businesses, a request that resulted in the exemptions announced Friday.

The U.S. trade deficit with Canada is largely driven by energy imports. The United States purchases millions of barrels of Canadian oil daily at a discount. When energy is excluded from the calculation, the U.S. actually runs a trade surplus with Canada. Despite this, Trump has continued to pressure automakers to move production from Canada to the United States.

Carney is set to host European Union leaders in Montreal on Thursday and Friday to strengthen economic and security ties. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has proposed making Canada the EU's first associate member, a status that has not yet been formally defined.