Ukraine's Drone Strategy Shuts Down Moscow Airports for Nine Hours Daily

Four Moscow area airports have suspended operations for up to nine hours nearly every day in October due to drone activity.

Independent investigators at Agentstvo report that Domodedovo, Sheremetyevo, Zhukovsky, and Vnukovo airports have faced these daily interruptions. The closures align with a strategy outlined by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in early September. He stated that Ukraine aims to render Russian airspace around Moscow and other destinations unsafe for travel. The following day, Ukraine sent a formal warning to the International Civil Aviation Organization regarding this increased risk.

The immediate cause of these stoppages is a safety measure used by Rosaviatsiya, Russia's aviation authority. This procedure, known as the carpet protocol, mandates the closure of airspace when unidentified objects appear or when Russian airspace is violated. Oleksandr Laneckij, chief executive of Friendly Avia Support, noted that every drone presents a military threat. He compared the current disruption to the impact of Yemen's Houthis on Saudi airspace, arguing that Ukraine's military capabilities are far stronger.

Military analyst Jan Matvejev stated that disrupting air traffic around Moscow is technically simple for Ukraine. He explained that triggering the protocol requires only basic drones without warheads or long range. Ukraine's arms industry currently produces hundreds of combat-ready long-range drones daily. Simon Shuster, writing in The Atlantic in October, described these efforts as just getting started. Matvejev also argued that Russian air defenses are not fully effective against these targets. He claimed that if Russia could easily shoot down the drones, it would have done so by now. He added that Russia would have deployed more air-defense troops if they were available.

Both experts warned that civilian flights face heightened risks under the current protocol. Laneckij suggested that Russia might lower the threshold for declaring the carpet protocol active. This change could increase the danger of incidents similar to the December 2024 crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines flight. Investigators determined that a Russian air-defense missile fired at drones struck that aircraft, killing 38 people. Matvejev said little has changed in Russia's air-defense protocols since that event. He noted that shooting a low-flying drone with a machine gun poses a low risk to aircraft. However, missiles present a greater danger because manufacturing defects could cause them to veer toward nearby airliners.

Matvejev added that drones do not need explosives to cause harm, as a collision with an airplane can be severe. He estimated that a drone traveling from Ukraine to Moscow would weigh dozens of kilograms. Other locations have also experienced drone-related disruptions. Ukrainian forces attacked Pskov airport in the summer of 2023, and drone debris fell on Sochi airport earlier this month. In September, Zelenskyy announced that Kyiv's airport and Boryspil, located near the capital, were also hit by Russian strikes.

Laneckij said that whether foreign airlines continue flying to Russia depends on three factors: the military threat, passenger demand, and insurance costs. If insurers rate the risk as very high, they may sharply raise premiums, which would drive ticket prices up. Competition in Russia's aviation market has already shrunk because many airlines have gone out of business. This reduction has increased demand for seats on the remaining foreign carriers. Laneckij concluded that the decision to stay or leave depends on the price airlines must pay for the danger they face.