Lebanon poll: Shi'ites favor state control of Hezbollah weapons

A recent poll indicates a shift in sentiment within Lebanon's Shi'ite community regarding the future of Hezbollah's weapons. The data suggests a majority now favors state control over the group's arsenal. This marks a notable change from earlier surveys that showed strong opposition to disarmament. The findings have drawn attention in regional media outlets.

Statistics Lebanon conducted the survey in September among 800 Shi'ite respondents. The results showed that 66.4% supported handing weapons over to the Lebanese state. Meanwhile, 29.6% preferred that Hezbollah retain them. The group has long claimed its arsenal is essential for defending the country against Israel. However, the new numbers question that traditional stance. The poll also found that 71.1% believe war and peace decisions should rest solely with the state. Only 5.9% said Hezbollah leadership should have a larger role in shaping the country's future.

Trust in the Lebanese Armed Forces remains high within the community. About 78.5% of respondents said they trust the army. Furthermore, 51.1% named it the best institution for guaranteeing long-term security. In contrast, only 16.5% chose Hezbollah for that role. These figures challenge the group's claim to represent the security interests of its base. Yet, feelings about the group's performance remain mixed. Some 67.4% said Hezbollah failed to meet its goals or only partially achieved them in the recent war with Israel. Despite this, 59.5% still expressed some trust in the organization.

Kataeb.org, the website of the Christian Kataeb Party, reported the detailed breakdown of the poll. The party opposes Hezbollah. KAN, Israel's public broadcaster, also covered the results. Roi Kais, a KAN reporter, noted that Hezbollah's support networks and status still sustain its strength. He argued this will continue as long as no other entity fills the vacuum left by the group. The findings emerged in mid-October, following the September data collection.

An earlier analysis presented a different picture. In a June 10 report for Israel's Institute for National Security Studies, researchers Orna Mizrahi and Moran Levanoni cited a May 2026 survey. That data found 87.5% of Shi'ites opposed disarming Hezbollah. Only 7.9% supported giving up weapons in that specific poll. The gap between the two surveys raises questions about wording and agenda. Mizrahi and Levanoni argued that weakening the group requires a stronger army and financial support from Western and Gulf states. They stated the state must replace the services Hezbollah provides.

Local signs of wariness also persist. In Tyre, property owners reportedly opposed opening a branch of Al-Qard Al-Hassan, a Hezbollah-linked financial institution. They feared the building could be targeted in an Israeli strike. Such branches have been hit before. Hezbollah has announced aid of up to $14,000 for eligible families in Beirut and its southern suburbs whose homes were destroyed. Families elsewhere may receive up to $12,000. A new war in March 2026 caused heavy destruction in southern villages. Hassan Nasrallah was killed in September 2024, leading to major leadership losses. The group continues to operate despite these changes.