NPR Reporters Warn Midterm Polling Errors Hide Tight Races

National polling data for the 2026 midterms has generally tracked the horse race accurately, though analysts note a slight underestimation of Republican turnout. However, state-level surveys have produced numerous low-quality results, including a few fake polls, according to Domenico Montanaro, NPR senior political editor. He explains that local journalism funding has declined, leaving fewer resources for rigorous and frequent state surveys.

Montanaro advises that a poll with a margin of error of plus or minus three or four percentage points actually represents a range of six to eight points. In a country where many elections are close, this fuzzy range means that specific margins between candidates are often less meaningful than general trends. He suggests that reporters should focus on statistically significant movements in public opinion on key issues rather than precise vote counts.

For individual reporters, the midterms offer a different type of access compared to presidential cycles. Sam Gringlas, an NPR congressional reporter, says he has covered candidates at an antique shop, a farmer's market, a UAW picnic, and a smokejumper-themed brewery. He notes that these smaller venues allow for intimate interactions that are difficult to achieve in the stadium-sized rallies typical of presidential campaigns.

Tamara Keith, another NPR senior political correspondent, is closely monitoring Nevada's 2nd Congressional District. The district, which President Trump won by 14 points, has not had a Democratic representative in over 40 years. The Republican nominee, a Trump-backed candidate who moved to the district specifically to run, has faced criticism from the retiring incumbent congressman. Keith describes the race as messy, noting that the Republican candidate blamed his grandchildren for one campaign misstep.

Ballot measures in several states will shape the political map. Maryland voters are considering a constitutional amendment to add a congressional seat, a measure that appears unlikely to pass despite the state's Democratic lean. In Colorado, a measure aims to make mid-decade redistricting harder. Missouri voters will decide on a redistricting plan that could help Republicans flip a seat. Alaska is again weighing its primary system and ranked choice voting, a measure that has historically been very close.

Domenico Montanaro is watching the Nevada governor's race between incumbent Joe Lombardo and state attorney general Aaron Ford. Ford has addressed past legal trouble from his college years, forcing voters to weigh that history against the national political climate. In California, tens of millions of dollars have been spent on a wealth tax initiative, which will test the state's willingness to adopt new fiscal experiments.

If Democrats take either chamber of Congress, legislation will likely stall unless there is bipartisan compromise. Montanaro points out that only about 10% of congressional districts are competitive, reducing the incentive for parties to meet in the middle. The most likely outcomes of a split government are increased oversight and investigations of the current administration. Since World War II, the president's party has gained seats in a midterm only twice, in 1998 and 2002.