Poll: Democrats Lead House Ballot by 8 Points as Israelis Vote

A new survey conducted by NPR, PBS News, and Marist indicates that Democrats maintain an eight-point lead on the generic congressional ballot among likely voters. The data suggests the party is well-positioned to gain control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the upcoming midterms. Domenico Montanaro of NPR noted that President Trump’s approval rating stands at 40%, a slight improvement that nonetheless leaves him unpopular with a portion of the electorate.

The poll reveals that financial strain is a primary driver of voter sentiment. One in three Americans reported facing financial hardships, and four in ten stated their personal finances are worsening. For Democrats and independents, preserving democracy remains a central concern, while immigration ranks as the top issue for supporters of the MAGA movement. Despite the clear House advantage, the Senate race remains a toss-up, with many outcomes expected to be decided by vote counting that may extend beyond election night.

In a related legal development, a federal judge heard arguments today regarding the Trump administration's effort to force California to set aside ballots from voters alleged to be non-citizens. This follows an appeals court decision last night to decline the administration's request for immediate intervention. President Trump announced yesterday that he is offering a $1 million reward for tips leading to a conviction for voter fraud. Eric McDaniel of NPR stated that credible evidence of voter fraud significant enough to alter U.S. election outcomes has never been found, despite the president's claims in every election he has participated in.

Isrealis are voting today in an election that marks the first opportunity to choose their leaders since the Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023. Voters will decide whether to retain Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the country's longest-serving leader, or replace him with Gadi Eisenkot. Eisenkot, a former military chief, campaigns on a platform of increased diplomacy and reduced extremism. Ruth Sherlock of NPR reported that high voter turnout is expected, with many Israelis abroad traveling home to cast their ballots.

At polling stations, supporters of Netanyahu argue that he is essential for national security despite recent challenges. Opponents seek a leadership change to trigger an investigation into the failures that preceded the October 7 attacks, an inquiry Netanyahu has previously blocked. Results indicating which side secures the most parliamentary seats are expected by Wednesday morning, though the final determination of the prime minister may take days or weeks of inter-party negotiations.

In other developments, Polymarket reported that it has investigated dozens of bets on its prediction markets concerning the midterms, according to Shana Bautista, the company's head of global intelligence and investigations. Meanwhile, the Archdiocese of New York agreed to pay $800 million to settle claims from approximately 1,300 people alleging sexual abuse by clergy and lay workers. Microsoft also sent memos to about 60,000 employees yesterday, offering voluntary buyouts available to roughly one quarter of its workforce.