Serbia votes as Student List targets 40 percent to end 14 year rule

Serbia held its parliamentary election on Sunday, a contest that political scientists describe as the first truly competitive race since the Serbian Progressive Party seized power in 2012. The Student List, a group of candidates backed by a student movement that has protested the government for nearly two years, aimed to capture more than 40 percent of the vote.

Thousands of supporters gathered in Belgrade on Thursday evening for the Student List's final campaign rally. Many attendees had walked for days from across the country to the capital. Arsa Stojanovic, a biology student, told the crowd that the walkers had crossed Serbia from end to end and visited villages and neighborhoods. He said they learned they could count on the people. Aleksandar Cupic, a transport engineering professor and candidate, said it smelled like freedom. The event closed with a traditional circle dance called a kolo.

The movement's rise followed a concrete canopy collapse at the Novi Sad railway station in November 2024, which killed 16 people. Students framed the disaster as a symbol of institutional failure and used it to demand accountability for corruption. They sought to bypass traditional ideological and foreign policy divisions that have historically shaped Serbian politics.

Dusan Spasojevic, a political scientist, told DW that polls indicate the Student List could win over 40 percent of the vote. He noted that the movement has generated substantial support and hope among voters. Spasojevic said the narrow margin suggested by polls points to a likely post-election crisis if the outcome is close.

A few kilometers from the student rally, the Serbian Progressive Party held its own closing event. The party, led by former President Aleksandar Vucic, argued that voting for the SNS ensures stability, continuity, and prosperity. Vucic told supporters that opponents had tried to destroy the country on foreign orders. He accused opponents of attacking the party with billions of euros and portrayed the election as a battle for sovereignty.

Violence shadowed the campaign. The independent monitoring group CRTA recorded 116 incidents of physical violence or verbal threats by the final week. These incidents included attacks on campaigners and attempts to seize campaign banners. CRTA also reported that opposition activists, particularly those linked to the Student List, faced surveillance and police questioning. The group said police were sometimes slow to protect opposition candidates and supporters.

CRTA stated in a report that the campaign was not free or fair. The report found that nearly three-quarters of airtime on national television went to government representatives. More than 80 percent of coverage of the Student List was negative. The Balkan Investigative Reporting Network published testimony from a former SNS member describing pressure on public-sector employees to deliver votes. Anonymous sources told DW that voters were offered between 30 and 150 euros, or family holiday packages, to vote for the SNS.

Authorities warned for weeks that students, allegedly aided by foreign intelligence, were preparing street violence. Several people were arrested on suspicion of plotting disturbances for election night. Spasojevic said a decisive win for either side would be the best outcome. He added that a narrow SNS victory would almost certainly be contested, as the movement has vowed to defend every vote.

An EU Commission spokesperson told DW that key recommendations on improving Serbia's electoral framework remain unimplemented. The spokesperson stressed that democracy and the rule of law are central to the accession process. Serbia has held candidate status for the European Union since 2012.

Spasojevic said the international response, particularly from the European Union, could be crucial in preventing escalation. He noted that such support might persuade authorities to accept defeat and avoid a heavy-handed response to protests.