Super El Niño drives record flooding across the Southwest

Residents in New Mexico, Arizona, and Colorado face continued heavy rains and rising water levels as an extreme El Niño event intensifies storms across the Southwest. Flash floods forced evacuations in northern New Mexico and central Arizona on Sunday. In Colorado, a ski town is preparing for its main river to reach catastrophic levels. These events follow a previous storm system last week that caused days of flooding in the southwestern states.

The current weather pattern is driven by a natural warming cycle in the Pacific Ocean. Scientists describe the latest iteration as particularly extreme compared to past events. Meteorologist Jeff Masters of Yale Climate Connections stated, “We’ve had super El Niños in the past, but this is a super duper El Niño.” The phenomenon is expected to continue affecting weather patterns for several more months.

El Niño was not the only cause of the recent severe storms. However, scientists say it makes heavy rains more likely and intense across the Southern United States. Desert regions feel the impact more strongly because the land does not absorb water as effectively. This leads to rapid runoff and flash flooding.

Former National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration chief scientist Ryan Maue calculated that over 20 trillion gallons of water have fallen on the Four Corners states and Nevada in the past two weeks. This volume of precipitation is fueling the current wave of flooding and rising river levels.

Climate scientist Daniel Swain with the University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources noted that the region is seeing precipitation levels not previously observed. He said, “The likelihood of big precipitation in the Southwest interior does go up this time of year, but we’re seeing it to a degree we actually haven’t seen before.” The extreme El Niño is adding more moisture to the air and shifting global wind patterns. These shifts redirect strong air currents toward the Southwest, stirring up moisture to create downpours.

Human-caused climate change is also playing a role. Ocean temperatures are already warmer than they were 100 years ago. Meteorologist Randy Cerveny with Arizona State University explained that this pre-existing warmth makes El Niño situations even more intense. The combination of the natural cycle and higher baseline temperatures creates conditions for sweltering extremes.

The phenomenon is altering weather patterns globally. Regions including Peru and Ecuador are experiencing record-breaking flooding, according to Swain. Conversely, parts of Southeast Asia, such as Indonesia, are drier than usual. This global shift in weather patterns is a direct result of the current El Niño event.

The El Niño event is expected to peak in December. At that time, it can more strongly influence air currents called jet streams. This influence produces more extreme storms across the western United States. Experts say the onslaught could continue for months after the peak.

Park Williams with UC San Diego’s Scripps Institution of Oceanography stated in an email, “The dice are certainly loaded for more heavy storms this winter and spring.” While El Niño can bring beneficial rainfall and fill reservoirs in dry areas, the storms and floods pose dangers to people and property. Experts recommend watching forecasts, planning ahead, and heeding evacuation warnings from local authorities.

Randy Cerveny added, “We’re not at the peak of the heating in the Pacific Ocean. So yes, we will see more of these particular events.” The current conditions are set to persist as the warming cycle continues to drive moisture into the atmosphere.