UK Aid Deficit: £400m Gap Projected for 2027

The United Kingdom is projected to fall short of its international aid spending target by an estimated £400 million by the end of 2027, according to new calculations released by the Center for Global Development. The think tank's analysis indicates that the Treasury's central forecast implies UK aid spending will sit at 0.29% of national income, missing the 0.3% goal established for that year.

The researchers outlined a range of possible outcomes for the budget gap. While the central estimate points to a shortfall of £410 million, they identified a more severe scenario where the deficit reaches £580 million, lowering the spending ratio to 0.28%. Even the most conservative projection included in their analysis suggests a gap of £250 million.

Ian Mitchell, a senior fellow at the Center for Global Development and co-director of its Europe programme, described the figures as material shortfalls in the spending power of UK aid. Mitchell stated that closing a gap of even £400 million would be sufficient to halve the planned cuts to Africa. He warned that these reductions are likely to cost thousands of lives and result in a de facto UK exit from the south and east of the continent.

The Center for Global Development attributed the projected deficit to two primary factors. First, inflation has come in higher than expected, meaning national income will be larger than it was during the 2025 spending review. Second, a policy change enacted in 2025 affecting the budget of the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office contributed to the discrepancy. The researchers urged ministers to add funds for international aid in this week's budget to avoid the criticism associated with missing a public target.

The 0.3% target for 2027 is substantially lower than the 0.7% figure promised in Labour's election manifesto. Prime Minister Keir Starmer lowered the target to free up capital for defence spending. Fleur Anderson, a former minister who serves on the foreign affairs select committee, said she wants to see higher aid spending in the upcoming budget.

Anderson stated that while she would prefer the government to reverse the cuts entirely, it must at least hit the reduced target that was set. She emphasized that falling short is not an abstract accounting issue, pointing to communities without clean water, girls leaving school, undelivered vaccines, and cuts to peace programmes in war zones.

Charities have repeatedly warned that deep aid cuts will damage children's education and raise the risk of disease and death in some African countries. Figures released by the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office in September showed that the cuts hit the world's poorest nations hardest. Funding to the least-developed and low-income countries fell by 6.7%, or £118 million, while higher-income countries received a larger share of the remaining funds.

The UK's overall official development assistance budget dropped to 0.44% of gross national income in 2025, down from 0.5% in 2024, representing a fall of £987 million. The government has prioritized funding through multilateral bodies such as the International Development Association and Gavi, while maintaining humanitarian support. In contrast, the Conservatives and Reform UK have pledged to cut aid from about £9 billion a year to £1 billion, a level that would leave the UK unable to cover its existing contributions to the United Nations and the World Bank.

An FCDO spokesperson said the multi-year aid allocations published in March 2026 set out spending plans based on gross national income at the time of the 2025 spending review. The spokesperson added that moving to a fixed budget reduces volatility and provides the necessary stability to deliver high-impact aid programmes.