Israel's Election Leaves Two Rivals Stuck Without a Majority

Israel faces a political impasse after its latest election, as neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor his challenger Gadi Eisenkot holds a clear path to power. The final results give the opposition more seats than Netanyahu's right-wing bloc, yet Eisenkot cannot reach a governing majority without help from Arab-led parties. His allies repeatedly ruled out that option during the campaign, leaving both men short of the 61 seats required for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset.

In the coming days, the Israeli president will consult with leaders from every party elected to parliament. Each group will recommend a candidate it believes should form a coalition. The president is not bound to choose the leader of the largest party. Instead, the role goes to the candidate considered most likely to assemble a governing majority. That candidate receives 28 days to secure support, with a possible extension of up to 14 days. If the effort fails, the president can turn to another candidate.

Eisenkot appears more likely to receive the first opportunity to form a coalition based on the current seat counts. He is a former military chief of staff and a relative newcomer to politics. His bloc lacks a majority without the Arab-led parties, which represent 21% of the population. Eisenkot has stated that their positions on Hamas and the war in Gaza prevent him from governing with them. Some Arab party leaders have refused to endorse the military goal of eliminating Hamas or to condemn it as a terrorist organization.

Netanyahu faces a different version of the same problem. His traditional coalition partners do not have enough seats to return him to power. One reported possibility is a unity government bringing together the two rivals. Israeli and some U.S. media outlets have reported that President Trump favors this outcome, although the reports have not been independently confirmed. Such a government would likely include moderate parties from the political center. It could also ease cooperation with the Trump administration on regional priorities, including the reconstruction of Gaza and a potential normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia.

However, Eisenkot has pledged not to serve in a government led by Netanyahu. The two would also need to resolve questions about who serves as prime minister and whether the position rotates. Another option is an Eisenkot government supported by Arab parties. Together, their blocs would command more than 67 seats. This arrangement remains unlikely because Eisenkot and his allies have rejected it, though the Arab parties could support the government from outside the coalition. A third possibility is another election, which Netanyahu may believe could work in his favor if Arab turnout declines.

A fourth possibility is that one bloc persuades lawmakers from the opposing camp to defect. This would be difficult under current results. Netanyahu would need roughly eight defectors, while Eisenkot would need approximately 13 if he continues to exclude the Arab parties. During this stalemate, a parliamentary majority opposed to Netanyahu could begin advancing legislation. Eisenkot's bloc is considering replacing the speaker of the Knesset and passing a law to establish a commission of inquiry into the failures that preceded the Hamas attack on Oct. 7, 2023. They also hope to reverse legislation that critics say weakened democratic institutions and judicial independence.

A renewed war with Iran could disrupt these negotiations. In his election night speech, Netanyahu said Israel still had to complete its mission against Iran. Eisenkot warned Netanyahu not to use Israel's security for his political needs. A new conflict, particularly one involving the United States, could increase pressure on Eisenkot to enter an emergency unity government. Danny Citrinowicz, an Israeli analyst, said Netanyahu has an incentive to renew the fighting while negotiations are underway. He noted that an emergency would mount pressure on Eisenkot to join a unity government, a dynamic that followed the Oct. 7 attack when Eisenkot briefly joined Netanyahu's war cabinet before resigning.