Israeli Politics: Eisenkot Leads Mandate Race as UJ Split Widens

President Isaac Herzog launched the constitutional process on Wednesday evening to determine which Knesset member will form the next Israeli government. The two-day series of meetings began with smaller factions and is scheduled to wrap up on Thursday with the Likud bloc, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Under the Basic Law, the president must choose the figure he believes has the best chance of building a working coalition, a decision that often differs from simply selecting the leader of the largest party.

The immediate complication involved the United Torah Judaism party, which holds seven seats. On Wednesday, the party’s Degel HaTorah faction, representing the Ashkenazi ultra-Orthodox community, announced it would abstain from the recommendation process. MK Yaakov Asher, the party chairman, stated the group was following the guidance of Rabbis Dov Lando and Moshe Hillel Hirsch. The three lawmakers from the Hasidic Agudat Yisrael faction had not yet declared their position as the day ended. This move reflects a deepening rift between the party and Netanyahu over the outgoing coalition's failure to pass legislation securing military service exemptions for Haredi men.

Wednesday’s sessions featured sharp exchanges between Herzog and party representatives. Orit Strock of Religious Zionism recommended Netanyahu, arguing that Arab parties were not legitimate participants in the government formation process due to their nationalist stance. Herzog pushed back, asking how such a distinction differed from racism. He pointed to Yoav Segalovitz, a Jewish police commander, who sits as the second candidate on the Arab-led Ra’am list. In the same session, Herzog told Tzvika Mor of Religious Zionism that describing the election results as a hostile takeover of the state under the guise of democracy was an extremely dangerous remark.

Moshe Feiglin, the sole member of the Zehut party, also recommended Netanyahu. He expressed concern over the election's legitimacy due to ongoing investigations into alleged voter fraud. Shas, which suffered its worst election loss since 1992, confirmed its support for Netanyahu. Representatives from the Sephardi ultra-Orthodox party defended their stance on military conscription, stating they prioritize recognizing the value of Torah scholars. When asked about a potential unity government, Shas representatives said it was Netanyahu's job to form such a coalition and urged Herzog to grant him the mandate.

Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu party endorsed Gadi Eisenkot of the Yashar party. The party confirmed its intention to rule out coalitions with both Arab and Haredi groups. MK Oded Forer explained that the refusal to work with these factions was strategic rather than personal. He argued that the current government has not taken responsibility for the events of October 7 and suggested that some elements within Likud might be open to future cooperation. As of Wednesday night, Eisenkot is projected to receive at least 56 recommendations, compared to 53 for Netanyahu. The Arab-led Joint List had not yet indicated whether it would support Eisenkot or abstain.

If Eisenkot receives the mandate, he will have a maximum of 42 days to form a government. His path may be complicated by internal opposition within his own bloc to working with both Arab and Haredi partners. The consultations are set to resume on Thursday morning with United Torah Judaism, followed by other major parties. The outcome will determine whether the lead remains with Eisenkot or shifts as the largest parties cast their recommendations.