Lula da Silva Faces a Fractured Electorate as Brazil's Service Economy Grows

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva enters this Sunday's presidential runoff with a significant challenge rooted in economic transformation. The contest is being shaped by a fundamental change in how ordinary Brazilians earn their livelihoods, moving away from traditional industrial bases toward a service-oriented economy. This shift has altered the political landscape in ways that may disadvantage the sitting president.

The most visible example of this transition is in Osasco, a municipality near São Paulo that was once a major industrial hub. Today, it is often described as the region's Silicon Valley, with closed factories replaced by shopping malls and delivery app headquarters. In the 2022 election, the city backed Lula, but this month's first round saw a shift toward right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro won the national first round, a milestone that has historically guaranteed victory for the winner since 1989.

Union leaders in these transformed areas express deep concern about the changing nature of the working class. Gilberto Almazan, who leads a metalworkers' union in Osasco, notes that the traditional industries that supported Lula's rise have largely vanished. He describes the union movement as outdated, arguing that the new workforce of drivers, couriers, and small traders prioritizes flexibility over collective bargaining. Almazan refers to this trend as Uberization, suggesting that these workers seek autonomy rather than the welfare protections typically associated with Lula's platform.

Historians and political analysts point to Brazil's unique economic trajectory, which industrialized late and deindustrialized early. Richard Lapper, who has written biographies of both major candidates, suggests Lula is a victim of his own success in building an industrial base that no longer exists. While unemployment has reached record lows and Brazil was removed from the UN Hunger Map under Lula's current term, a crisis of expectations persists. Many citizens feel that higher prices, household debt, and high interest rates have eroded their sense of progress despite objective improvements.

Voter sentiment reflects this tension. Some long-time supporters, like 53-year-old civil servant Robson, blame government mismanagement for heavy taxes. Others, such as hot dog seller Tairine, who previously abstained from voting, are switching to Bolsonaro due to a feeling that nothing has changed. Lula's campaign is responding by mobilizing large street rallies, claiming one in São Paulo drew a million people. The 80-year-old president has also actively used social media to project vitality, referring to himself as the king of selfies to counter claims that he is past his prime.

Among the poorest populations, Lula's welfare record remains a strong asset. In Maré, a large favela in Rio de Janeiro, Lula won despite above-average abstention rates. Young residents like Vitoria, an 18-year-old mother, praise his minimum wage increases and access to free medicines. However, she and others express fear regarding Bolsonaro's plan to designate the Comando Vermelho gang as a terrorist organization, citing deadly police raids in Rio earlier this year. Low turnout is also attributed to logistical issues and a general sense of hopelessness.

The role of evangelical churches is increasingly influential, with about a quarter of Brazilians attending services that provide childcare and employment advice. Pastor Silas Malafaia, who is under investigation for allegedly obstructing the coup trial of Jair Bolsonaro, supports Flávio Bolsonaro, citing shared values on family and abortion. Despite this alignment, analysts suggest the first round was more of a rejection of Lula than a clear endorsement of his opponent. The outcome may hinge on whether voters believe Lula can present a new narrative for a country whose economic foundation has fundamentally shifted.

Flávio Bolsonaro has proposed cutting government spending and ministries while retaining some of Lula's flagship welfare programs. He has also denied recent corruption accusations. The high abstention rate in the first round, with 33 million people not voting, marks the highest level since 1998 and signals significant uncertainty. As the runoff approaches, the question remains whether Lula can adapt his message to a workforce that is less industrial and more precarious than the one that helped bring him to power.