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Ten Senate races decide who controls Congress in Trump's final term

Voters in key states face high stakes as Democrats seek a net gain of four seats to check the administration.

By Priya Singh ·

Illustration for: Ten Senate races decide who controls Congress in Trump's final term
Voters wait in line to cast their ballots in a closely watched Senate race.

Polls are open across the nation as voters head to the polls to decide the balance of power in the United States Senate. The Associated Press reports that this midterm election serves as a referendum on President Donald Trump's second term, with many citizens expressing frustration over high prices and the ongoing war with Iran. The outcome will determine which party controls Congress for the final two years of the current administration. Democrats currently hold 45 seats in the Senate, while Republicans hold 53. To gain a majority, the Democratic Party needs to secure a net gain of four seats. Republicans can afford to lose only two seats and still maintain their control of the chamber.

The Associated Press and PBS NewsHour have identified ten specific Senate matchups that are central to this fight for control. In North Carolina, Democratic former Governor Roy Cooper is challenging former Republican National Committee chair Michael Whatley. This race follows the retirement of incumbent Thom Tillis, who stepped down after clashing with the President. The state voted for President Trump by a margin of 3.3 percent in 2024, making the contest highly competitive for both parties.

In Georgia, incumbent Senator Jon Ossoff is defending his seat against Republican Representative Mike Collins. The Associated Press notes that the state voted for the President by a narrow 2.2 percent margin in the previous cycle. Race ratings from major political analysts classify Georgia as leaning to likely Democratic. The contest is viewed as a crucial battleground where the cost of living and health care costs are prominent issues for voters deciding their choice.

Ohio presents a special election to fill the seat held by Vice President JD Vance. Democratic former Senator Sherrod Brown is running against incumbent Senator Jon Husted. The state voted for the President by 11.2 percent in 2024. The Associated Press highlights that Ohio is using a new congressional map for these elections, a change that adds a layer of complexity to the voting dynamics in the state. Voters in Ohio are weighing the administration's performance against local economic conditions.

In Michigan, the race is between Republican former Representative Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed. Gary Peters, the incumbent Democrat, retired from his position. The state voted for the President by a slim 1.4 percent margin. A notable development occurred on Sunday when Haley Stevens, El-Sayed's former primary opponent, endorsed Rogers. This endorsement has drawn attention from national observers who are tracking the momentum in the Great Lakes region.

Texas features a high-profile contest between Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico. The Associated Press notes that President Trump backed Paxton over incumbent Senator John Cornyn during the primary election. The state voted for the President by 13.6 percent in 2024. This race is part of a broader strategy for Republicans to hold their majority in states where they have strong support. The outcome will influence the legislative agenda for the next two years.

Maine is considered a toss-up by all four major race rating services. Senator Susan Collins is seeking to retain her seat against Democratic former state Senate President Troy Jackson. The Associated Press reports that economic strain and tariffs have made the state more competitive than in previous cycles. Maine voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris by 6.9 percent in 2024. The close margins in this state make it a critical target for Democratic voters hoping to shift the balance of power.

New Hampshire is holding a special election following the retirement of Senator Jeanne Shaheen. Democratic Representative Chris Pappas is competing against former Republican Senator John E. Sununu. The state voted for the former Vice President by 2.8 percent in the last presidential election. The race is closely watched because it could determine the final seat count for each party. Voters in New Hampshire are evaluating the candidates based on their records and their plans for addressing national issues.

Minnesota has an open seat following the retirement of Senator Tina Smith. The race features Democratic Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan and Republican Michele Tafoya, a former sports broadcaster. There are four candidates in the race, making it a contested field. The state is a key location for Democrats seeking to expand their presence in the Senate. The Associated Press notes that the election is part of a broader effort to check the power of the administration in the final two years of the term.

Kansas, a state that has traditionally favored Republicans, has become central to the fight for Senate control. The race is between incumbent Senator Roger Marshall and Democratic challengers. The state voted for the President by 16.2 percent in 2024. The Associated Press reports that President Trump held a rally in Salina, Kansas, on Sunday, urging voters to pretend he was on the ballot. The race is rated as a toss-up to lean Republican by analysts. The outcome in Kansas will be a significant indicator of Republican strength in the Midwest.

Alaska features a contested race where the Trump administration filed a lawsuit related to the certification of the Senate result. The state voted for the President by 13.1 percent in 2024. The race is rated as a toss-up to lean Democratic by some analysts. The legal challenges and the unique voting procedures in Alaska make this race a focal point for observers. The result will contribute to the overall tally of seats held by each party in the Senate.

Source: Associated Press, Reuters, Ballotpedia

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